Retailers Anticipate 5.6% Dip in Trade Volume Amid Tariff Concerns

Blow to US retail. The National Retail Federation (NRF) of the United States forecasts that, following the activation of import tariffs implemented by the Donald Trump administration, the volume of goods arriving at US ports will fall by more than 5% by the end of the year. This impact will be concentrated, moreover, in the second half of the year, when the tariffs have definitively entered into force.

According to data from the entity, in the first six months of the year, container trade reached 12.53 million TEUs (the cargo capacity of a twenty-foot container or equivalent), 3.6% more than the previous year. By the second half of 2025, however, the total volume will end up at 24.1 million TEUs, down 5.6%.

“Despite the fact that these forecasts are still preliminary, they demonstrate the impact of tariffs and the new US Administration policy on the supply chain,“ explained Jonathan Gold, vice president of value chain and customs at NRF. The expert added that the increased tariff barriers have already begun to affect prices, which will particularly affect the viability of small businesses.

Retail estimates that the first drop will occur as early as September

The sector started the year on an upward trend, with a cargo volume of 2.2 million TEUs in January, compared to 1.96 million TEUs the previous year. This positive trend continued in February (2.06 million), March (2.15 million) and April (2.21 million). Since then, however, the number of containers arriving at U.S. ports has declined compared to 2024, down to 1.9 million containers in both May and June.

Looking ahead, the agency expects imports to stand at 2.2 million in August, down 5% from a year earlier, and 1.83 million in September, down 19.5%. The drop will gradually accelerate, with container volumes falling by 18.8% in October, 21.1% in November and another 19.3% in December.

“The comings and goings of current U.S. trade policy have created confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers,“ charged Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, with whom NRF conducted the report. “All of this will ultimately lead to a drop in global trade volume by September at the latest,“ he added.